The NFL community as well as the betting markets have come to generally agree that at least three quarterbacks will be chosen in the first round of this year’s draft, which starts Thursday evening. Regarding four, though, what about this?
Let us see the NFL’s rampant quarterback need combined with the lack of solutions in the free agent and trade markets, lead to some chaos Thursday night for as much flak as these college quarterbacks have caught, collectively and individually, and for all the consternation about whether more than one is worth choosing in the top half of the first round, let alone the top 10.
I would not gamble on it either. I wouldn’t especially gamble against it, though either.
“I know it sounds a little crazy, but I really think four are going,” said one NFL general manager whose team is selecting in the rear half of the first round and who spoke under the condition of anonymity for strategic reasons. Given where he is choosing, this GM has given this market some serious attention.
“Maybe everything I am hearing is bull—- and I am not telling you where every one of [the quarterbacks is] going, but two are going in the first nine picks, and Pittsburgh could take one, and somebody is going to end up trading in for one.”
Another GM, selecting in line with the draft, remarked: “I would be astonished if that happened, but it is clearly not out of the question. One could see it.
Though he wouldn’t totally rule it out, a third GM choosing in the latter part of the first round said that it would take some major stretching to put four of these quarterbacks among the 32 top prospects.
Man, I have no idea how you have four with first-round marks. Someone is using Tyler Shough from Louisville at that level?… But I suppose it’s not inconceivable when you consider where [Blake] Bortles and [Josh] Rosen and [Paxton] Lynch and [Johnny] Manziel visited. I do not see it, though.
Of course, everyone of those NFL letdowns entered the first round.
One high-ranking executive with another team selecting late in the first round delivered a strong refutation of the whole idea: “No f—— way.” His team some feel might be in the market for a quarterback. I am not making purchase on it. But a head coach whose team is also choosing in the later half of the first round was not quite as contemptuous.
“That wouldn’t shock me at all,” the coach remarked. “I would call it unexpected but not shocking.”
In what sequence would it go?
The first two general managers presented almost exactly the same scenario: Miami’s Cam Ward goes first overall to the Titans, a foregone conclusion. According to both general managers, new Saints coach Kellen Moore likes Jaxson Dart (Mississippi) over Shedur Sanders (Colorado) with the ninth choice. Still, all three GMs agreed the Saints will choose a quarterback. Third GM said, “They have to.” “Derek Carr cannot be played with. He completed.
Consensus is that the deepest Sanders would slide would be to the Steelers at No. 21 if Dart went that high to the Saints. “Sanders isn’t getting past Mike Tomlin,” the first General Manager remarked. I would wager my a-on that.
Some teams with dreams of Jalen Hurts may not want to risk sitting overnight Thursday, fearing that either someone else would move up to grab him at the start of Round 2 or the Browns would simply take him with the first pick of the second day. I have covered the increasing buzz around Alabama’s Jalen Milroe. Teams are divided on Shough; some general managers insist he shouldn’t have more than a third-round grade, while others think a team that truly loved him might snag him around No. 32 and explain it based on their other needs.
Although both clubs have a great need there and may not want to wait until Friday to handle it, it is abundantly evident the Browns and Giants would not utilize the second and third overall picks on quarterbacks. Should Dart indeed precede Sanders, the likelihood of four quarterbacks coming off the board Thursday night rises.
Issues with the 2026 quarterback also seem to be gathering traction. With a range of possibilities in every round, the depth of the strongest positions of this draft—such as defensive line—may cause more reaches for skill players in the latter half of Round 1. Maybe the Thursday late night choices will be more intriguing than first anticipated.
Could the first go three running backs?
Though I could be a complete rube, I have come around thinking that three running backs might be taken Thursday night also. Denver’s actions could determine that outcome, just as the New Orleans choice may have a significant trickle-down effect on other first-round quarterbacks.
Though some contend his actual floor is Dallas at pick 12, Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, the consensus top running back, is definitely going between No. 5 and No. 10. The Jaguars, who choose fifth, are looking at Jeanty, the GMs I spoke with, and the Bears are said to be contemplating him at No. 10. Regardless, he won’t wait long to hear his name called.
A running back would most likely find Denver (at No. 20) home. Sean Payton’s offense is gravely lacking a three-down difference-maker who could pass protect and grab the ball. And even if many forecasts show North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton as the most likely backup taken following Jeanty, that is not a lock. TreVeyon Henderson of Ohio State fits some of the same criteria.
The first GM said, “I could see [Payton] taking the OSU running back, really could.” “He is looking for someone to follow what Mark Ingram gave him in New Orleans; he fits what they want to do.” The third GM said: “I could see that being a toss-up for Sean between those two.”
Should more teams have Hampton ranked higher and the Broncos select Henderson, a club towards the end of the first round might snag Hampton. The first GM responded, “I don’t think it’s as likely to happen as four QBs,” but he wasn’t ruling it out.
Notes taken from all over the league.
Some teams have such severe needs that it seems clear they will draft from a specific point of view. ” somebody will end up getting fired there if the Texans do not get a left tackle with their first pick,” the first general remarked. “I have no idea how good the quarterback is.”
Likewise, the Panthers doing anything except picking a pass rusher at No. 8 would be a big surprise. And the top two tight ends, Penn State’s Tyler Warren and Michigan’s Colston Loveland, will be gone by the time the Colts finish selecting with the 14th choice, according to the GMs and agents I spoke with. Though what many mock drafts would indicate, there was not consistency among those I spoke with regarding Warren going before Loveland; one of the two might be in play as high as the fourth overall selection. ..
South Carolina defensive linemen T.J. Sanders is one deep sleeper for the late first round that evaluators truly love. He exhibits projectable pass rush talents and is quite flexible. “You can flex him out to outside linebacker and get creative with how you use him,” one long-time NFL scout said. For me, he is just below the first group of assured first-round defensive tackles. This is a size and length game; his game is flexible.